publications | Munem Ahmad Chowdhury

2025

JTF

Nexus between infrastructural development and economic growth: Evidence from Bangladesh through auto-regressive distributive lag and nonlinear auto-regressive distributive lag analysis

Munem Ahmad Chowdhury and M. Zakir Saadullah Khan

Journal of Tropical Futures, 2025

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This study aims to scrutinize the influence of infrastructure on the economic growth of Bangladesh, employing an extensive time series analysis spanning from 1973 to 2020. Utilizing Principle Component Analysis, two distinct indices were constructed to gauge the dimensions of economic and social infrastructure. Subsequently, Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (NARDL) bound tests were employed to assess the existence of long-run relationships among the variables under examination. The findings indicate a significant and positive contribution of economic infrastructure to both long and short-term production expansion. Upon further disaggregation into negative and positive shocks, consistent results emerge. An increase (decrease) in the economic infrastructure (EI) index by one unit corresponds to an upsurge (subside) of 0.16% (0.17%) in economic growth. In contrast, social infrastructure (SI) exhibits no significant long-run association with GDP growth. The discerned pattern suggests that EI play a pivotal role in driving aggregate output, while SI display a lag. Despite this, it is imperative to underscore the importance of SI for human development. Consequently, adopting a comprehensive and strategic approach, encompassing vision, ensuring quality inclusivity, and anti-corruption measures, is imperative for Bangladesh to fully realize the transformative potential of its infrastructure investments and foster sustained economic growth.

2024

IJEE

Exploring the Dynamics of Economic Instability: An Analysis of the Interplay between Consumer Spending, Consumer Confidence, and Macroeconomic Factors

Ayodele Idowu, Munem Ahmad Chowdhury, Hafsa Rahman Nijhum, and 1 more author

International Journal of Empirical Economics, 2024

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This study empirically evaluates the effect of consumer confidence on consumer spending in Nigeria. Relatively little attention has been paid to the existence of a long-run relationship between consumer confidence and consumer spending in Nigeria, and this study aims to contribute to the existing literature in this regard by utilising quarterly data spanning from 2009 to 2023. Examining the relationship through the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, it was found that consumer confidence, money supply, and inflation have a significantly positive impact on consumer spending, while interest rates possess an adverse relationship with consumer spending in Nigeria in the long run. The findings of the study recommend that good infrastructure, ease of doing business, and reduction of tax rate on everyday purchasing are key contributors to consumers’ optimism. Additionally, efficient responses to economic shocks and effective policy reformation according to the shift of the dynamic financial world are also crucial to making the economy well-run and maintaining the level of consumers’ confidence.

2023

IJICBM

Interaction of market size, inflation and trade openness on foreign direct investment inflows in India, China and Japan: panel dynamic analysis

Md. Hasanur Rahman, Munem Ahmad Chowdhury, and Mst Sharmin Akter

International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, 2023

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In the world of competitiveness, FDI is considered as a macroeconomic component, and that developing countries are introducing it as a substitute for their larger investment gaps in policies. Fast-growing countries like China, India, and Japan are also no exception to this. Findings from the study confirm the existence of a long-term relationship among the variables. The long-run dynamic equation shows a greater degree of openness and an expansion of market size attracts more FDI in the long run, whilst raising the inflation rate discourages foreigners from investing. In the short run, none of the variables have any sort of significant relationship with the Granger causality test, giving an interesting insight that unidirectional causalities exist with the remaining variables, which run from FDI to trade openness. In a nutshell, FDI helps to sustain the economies of these countries through its multiplier impact on other macroeconomic factors.
QFE

Does industrialization trigger carbon emissions through energy consumption? Evidence from OPEC countries and high industrialised countries

Ayodele Idowu, Obaika Micheal Ohikhuare, and Munem Ahmad Chowdhury

Quantitative Finance and Economics, 2023

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This study investigated the effect of Industrialization on carbon emissions through energy consumption for a panel of eight Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and nine highly industrialized countries over the period 1985 to 2020; the study employs the first-generation and second-generation Unit root tests. The study further adopts the use of the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model and the Common Correlated Effect pooled mean group to estimate the parameters of the model for OPEC countries and High Industrialised Countries, respectively. In addition, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin Granger causality test is conducted to infer the direction of causality among the variables. The causality test result reveals that, in OPEC, energy consumed during industrial activity is not enough to cause carbon emission, and carbon emission does not cause industrialisation to interact with energy consumption. Also, for highly industrialised countries, the interaction of energy consumption and industrialization causes carbon emission, but carbon emission does not cause the interaction of energy consumption and industrialization. The estimated model shows that the interactive effect of Industrialization and energy consumption has no significant influence on carbon emissions in OPEC countries in the short and long run. In contrast, foreign direct investment and economic growth have a positive and significant effect on carbon emissions in the short run. However, for highly industrialised countries the study found that the interactive effect of energy industrialization and energy consumption has a positive and significant effect on carbon emissions in the short run. It is apparent from the study that energy consumption for industrial activities, particularly in highly industrialised countries, causes carbon emissions and such policymakers should formulate policies that necessitate the use of green energy for industrial activities to improve environmental quality.

2021

BER

Disintegrated Impact of Trade Openness on Income Inequality: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh

Munem Ahmad Chowdhury, Hafsa Rahman Nijhum, and Kazi Mohammed Kamal Uddin

Business and Economic Research, 2021

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There have been many studies on the relationship between trade and income inequality, but very few of them have distinguished the idea of trade by export and import. For this reason this study is conducted to see how the income inequality of Bangladesh get impacted with the presence of import and export separately. ARDL bound test is used to inspect whether they possess long run relation with income inequality for the period of 1975 to 2016. Thereupon export has been found to be widening the income gap in the long run. Though import improves the situation by abating the gap, it is not significant enough. Besides that other imperative macroeconomic variables are used to condense the omitted variable bias and their outcomes akin to the theory for developing country aspect. Furthermore, models like FMOLS, DOLS and CCR are used for ensuring the robustness of the result and other diagnostic tests support the validity of the result. Moreover policies related to labor welfare need to be set in a manner so that minimum wage allows a worker to lead a healthy life which will help keeping him or her productive. In addition, correspondent authority should frame the policies to diversify the export sector to give the opportunity to small entrepreneurs a chance to enter by providing the convenient environment.
AJEM

Attaining Sustainable Economic Growth in Bangladesh: Role of External Financial Means of Implementation

Kazi Mohammed Kamal Uddin and Munem Ahmad Chowdhury

Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 2021

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Sustainable development is the goal of every nation. For this reason, achieving rapid and continuous economic growth is imperative and steps should be taken to play a strong role by identifying and accelerating the performance of the areas that affect it the most. This paper explores the role of external financial means of implementation (MoI) in amplifying the economic growth of Bangladesh for the period 1990-2018. Two thoughts are specifically canvassed here: Sole contribution of export and each of the other MoI in achieving higher economic growth; total export earning or the aggregate amount of other MoI, which contribute the most. Co-integrating relations are determined by ARDL Bound test as variables are stationary at different level. In the long run, economic growth increase by 0.60, 0.06 and 0.38 units for every 1 unit of export, FDI and ODA increase. Money earned from remittances plays an insignificant negative role in GDP due to lack of investment and inappropriate consumption during that period. Export play the most effective role to boost economic growth as it contributes 0.05% more than aggregate value of other MoIs. The solidity of the results has been confirmed through various diagnostic tests.

2020

IJAEFA

Impact of FDI on Employment Level in Bangladesh: A VECM Approach

Kazi Mohammed Kamal Uddin and Munem Ahmad Chowdhury

International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, 2020

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This study is designed to investigate the role of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in overall job creation in Bangladesh where annual time series data is used spanning from 1991 to 2018. The role of gross domestic products (GDP) and trade openness on employment level are also addressed. Johansen-Juselius cointegration and Vector error correction model are performed to check long run relationship and short run dynamics among the variables. The findings show that there exists co-integrating relations among the variables. Both FDI and GDP have significant positive effect on employment but trade openness possess the negative impact on employment in the long run. But FDI is negatively related with employment in the short run. This paper suggests to concentrate on making efficient policies to attract investors in green field investment which means investing for the establishment of new firms to create job opportunities in a large scale and to give the opportunity and logistic support to the native producers to produce more import substituted goods for reducing import dependence tendency.
IOSR-JRME

Facilitating higher education: differential status of public and private universities in Bangladesh

Sharna Mazumder and Munem Ahmad Chowdhury

IOSR Journal of Research & Method in Education, 2020

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Access to higher education shapes a country in a more productive and progressive way. For this reason, Bangladesh has experienced an increasing rate in the establishment of both Public Universities and Private Universities, like other developing countries. But maintaining quality of them is more concerned issue than embedding. So the aim of this study is to differentiate the current position of two major classes of university by their different determinants. In this study all existing public and private universities are used as sample. All the required data used in this study are secondary in nature. An explanatory-quantitative research method has been performed to reveal the assimilation between public and private universities. This study states that most of the determinants we have selected act positive with private universities rather than public universities.