project 10

Duration: December 2024 – February 2025

Client: BRAC

Sample Size: 400 Questionnaire Survey, 12 FGDs, 24 KIIs and 12 IDIs

Responsibilities: Survey Tools design, Field Team Supervision, Data Analysis, and Report writing.

Contributed to this project while working at Bangladesh Institute of Social Research Trust

Executive Summary

This study investigates the impact of climate change on international migration in Bangladesh, focusing on regions affected by environmental hazards such as salinity intrusion, river erosion, and cyclones. The research addresses three key questions: (1) How does climate change influence international migration patterns? (2) To what extent does climate displacement contribute to human trafficking? And (3) How effective are reintegration services for returnee migrants? To answer these questions, the study employed a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative data collection. A structured questionnaire survey was conducted among 401 households across four districts—Barishal, Khulna, Satkhira, and Sirajganj. The data were analyzed using logistic regression (logit) models to assess the factors influencing migration decisions, and Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) was used to construct indices for push and pull factors. Qualitative insights were gathered through key informant interviews, in-depth interviews, and focus group discussions.

The results from the logit regression models revealed that climatic stressors and push factors, significantly drive international migration. A one-unit increase in the push factor index increased the probability of climate-driven migration by 16% to 22%. Cyclones had the strongest impact, increasing the likelihood of migration by 27%, followed by flooding (20%) and salinity (16%). In contrast, pull factors, such as better employment opportunities abroad, had a negative relationship with migration decisions. A one-unit increase in the pull factor index reduced the probability of migration by 18% to 26%. This suggests that while climate change and socio-economic pressures (push factor) push people to migrate, the attractiveness of destination countries plays a lesser role in their decision-making. Qualitative insights, however, show that social networks, were found facilitating migration by reducing risks and providing critical information.

The study also explored how climate displacement led to human trafficking. Respondents identified three primary factors leading to trafficking: lack of jobs in the local area (33.30%), poverty and economic desperation (33.40%), and lack of education or awareness (25.05%). These factors highlight how economic instability and limited knowledge about safe migration practices make individuals vulnerable to exploitation by traffickers. Irregular migration pathways, though less frequently cited (6.31%), were also identified as a significant risk factor.

Regarding reintegration services, 62.34% of returnee migrants reported receiving support, primarily from BRAC. The most common services included material assistance (47.73%) and skill training (45.13%). However, critical gaps were identified in job placement support (0.65%), and psychosocial support (2.60%). Despite these limitations, 66.66% of returnees found the services helpful or very helpful, with levels varying by region. Overall, while reintegration programs have shown positive impacts, there is a need for more comprehensive support to address the long-term economic and psychological needs of returnees (raised by FGD participants).

Based on these findings, the study recommends several policy actions. First, climate-induced international migration should be integrated into national policies, with a focus on creating safe and legal migration pathways. Second, public-private partnerships should be established to expand legal migration opportunities and reduce the risks of irregular migration and trafficking. Third, targeted financial assistance and skill development programs should be provided to individuals in climate-affected regions. Fourth, reintegration services should be expanded to include job placement, financial aid, and psychosocial support. Finally, community-level awareness programs should be implemented to educate vulnerable populations about the risks of trafficking and safe migration practices.

This study underscores the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to address the challenges of climate-induced migration in Bangladesh. By addressing both the environmental and socio-economic drivers of migration, policymakers can better support vulnerable populations and reduce the risks associated with climate-induced displacement and trafficking.